May 16th, 1917

Received by:James Padgett

Washington D.C.

I am here, Bismarck.

Well, I am here and will give you my opinion of the war as best I can. My views are based on the conditions that I am aware of in all the countries engaged in the war.

I understand that you do not want a long message tonight so I will say briefly that the Germans will have to sue for peace and that will happen, I feel certain, before the beginning of August.

The condition of the German people is such that they will cease to sustain the Kaiser in the longer prosecution of the war, and the revolutionary party will grow so rapidly that the monarch of Germany will soon cease to exist. This is the opinion of the one who is responsible for the formation of the Empire.

Bismarck